Alien Civilization Calculator

Estimate the number of extraterrestrial civilizations using the Drake equation and Astrobiological Copernican Limits

Calculate Alien Civilizations

Strength indicates how strict conditions are for extraterrestrial life formation

Stars at least 5 billion years old

Stars with planets in habitable zone

Stars with sufficient metal content

Time available for life development

Average civilization communication lifetime

Alien Civilization Results

36
👽 Civilizations
3,752
Light-years (max distance)

Method: Astrobiological Copernican Limits

Formula: N = N* × fL × fHZ × fM × (L/τ')

Moderate number of civilizations likely exist

Probability vs Distance

ly

Method Comparison

Drake Equation (1961):
• Classic SETI approach
• More parameters to estimate
• Higher uncertainty
• Result: 0 civilizations
Astrobiological Copernican (2020):
• Modern statistical approach
• Based on Earth's development
• More reliable assumptions
• Result: 36 civilizations

Example: Moderate Scenario

Astrobiological Copernican

Total Stars: 250 billion

Mature Stars: 3.5%

Habitable Zone: 35%

Metallicity: 75%

Signal Lifetime: 304 years

Calculation

N = 250×10⁹ × 0.035 × 0.35 × 0.75 × (304/2×10⁹)

N = 2.5×10¹¹ × 0.0919 × 1.52×10⁻⁷

N ≈ 3,500 civilizations

Max distance ≈ 2,600 light-years

SETI Search Efforts

🔭

Radio Signals

Searching for artificial radio transmissions

💡

Technosignatures

Industrial pollution, city lights, megastructures

🌍

Exoplanets

Studying habitable planets and biosignatures

🛸

Breakthrough Listen

Largest SETI program using advanced technology

Fascinating Facts

Milky Way contains ~250 billion stars

Almost every star has planets (Kepler findings)

Life on Earth emerged ~3.8 billion years ago

Modern humans appeared ~300,000 years ago

Radio technology is only ~150 years old

Understanding the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence

The Drake Equation

Formulated by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961, this equation attempts to estimate the number of communicating extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy. It multiplies various factors that influence the development of communicating civilizations.

Astrobiological Copernican Limits

Developed by Tom Westby and Christopher Conselice in 2020, this modern approach uses statistical methods and assumes that Earth-like planets will develop intelligent life similar to our planet, based on the time it took for intelligence to emerge on Earth.

The Fermi Paradox

If the galaxy contains many civilizations, where is everybody? This paradox highlights the contradiction between high probability estimates and the lack of evidence for extraterrestrial civilizations.

Drake Equation Formula

N = R* × fp × ne × fl × fs × ft × L

  • N: Number of communicating civilizations
  • R*: Star formation rate
  • fp: Fraction of stars with planets
  • ne: Number of habitable planets per star
  • fl: Fraction with life
  • fs: Fraction with intelligent life
  • ft: Fraction with communication
  • L: Civilization lifetime

Copernican Formula

N = N* × fL × fHZ × fM × (L/τ')

  • N*: Total stars in galaxy
  • fL: Fraction of mature stars (≥5 Gyr)
  • fHZ: Fraction in habitable zone
  • fM: Fraction with sufficient metals
  • L: Civilization signal lifetime
  • τ': Time available for development

Optimistic Scenario

  • • Thousands of civilizations
  • • Nearest ~1,000 light-years away
  • • Life emerges readily
  • • Intelligence is common
  • • Long civilization lifetimes
  • • Galaxy teeming with life

Moderate Scenario

  • • Dozens to hundreds
  • • Nearest ~10,000 light-years
  • • Life requires specific conditions
  • • Intelligence less common
  • • Variable civilization lifetimes
  • • Sparse but present

Pessimistic Scenario

  • • Very few or none
  • • Extremely rare events
  • • Life emergence unlikely
  • • Intelligence very rare
  • • Short civilization lifetimes
  • • We may be alone