Hypergeometric Distribution Calculator

Calculate probabilities for sampling without replacement from finite populations

Distribution Parameters

Total number of items in the population

Number of items with desired feature in population

Number of items drawn from population

Number of success items to find in sample

Results

Probability
0.147408
P(X = 4)
14.7408%
Mean (μ):2.5000
Variance (σ²):1.5160
Standard Deviation (σ):1.2312

Formula: P(X = k) = C(K,k) × C(N-K,n-k) / C(N,n)

Parameters: N=48, K=12, n=10, k=4

Mean formula: μ = n × K / N = 10 × 12 / 48 = 2.5000

Chocolate Bar Example

Problem Setup

Scenario: Bag contains 12 dark and 36 white chocolate bars

Population size (N): 48 total bars

Success states (K): 12 dark chocolate bars

Sample size (n): 10 bars drawn without replacement

Question: What's the probability of exactly 4 dark bars?

Solution

P(X = 4) = C(12,4) × C(36,6) / C(48,10)

P(X = 4) = 495 × 1,947,792 / 6,540,715,896

P(X = 4) ≈ 0.1474 or 14.74%

Expected value: μ = 10 × 12 / 48 = 2.5 dark bars

Key Characteristics

1

Finite Population

Fixed number of items total

2

No Replacement

Items not returned to population

3

Binary Outcomes

Success or failure states only

4

Fixed Sample

Predetermined number of draws

When to Use

Quality control sampling

Card game probabilities

Fisher's exact test

Ecological sampling

Medical testing accuracy

Understanding Hypergeometric Distribution

What is Hypergeometric Distribution?

The hypergeometric distribution describes the probability of getting exactly k successes in n draws from a finite population of size N containing K success items, without replacement.

Key Properties

  • Mean: μ = n × K / N
  • Variance: σ² = n × (K/N) × (1-K/N) × (N-n)/(N-1)
  • Maximum k value is min(n, K)
  • Becomes binomial when N is very large

Probability Mass Function

P(X = k) = C(K,k) × C(N-K,n-k) / C(N,n)

  • N: Population size
  • K: Number of success items in population
  • n: Sample size (number of draws)
  • k: Number of successes in sample
  • C(n,k): Binomial coefficient ("n choose k")

Note: All draws must be without replacement for this distribution to apply.

Hypergeometric vs. Binomial Distribution

Hypergeometric

  • • Sampling without replacement
  • • Finite population
  • • Probability changes with each draw
  • • Used for small populations

Binomial

  • • Sampling with replacement
  • • Infinite or very large population
  • • Constant probability
  • • Used for independent trials