Poisson Distribution Calculator

Calculate probabilities for Poisson distribution with customizable parameters

Calculate Poisson Distribution

Average number of events per interval

Number of events to calculate probability for

Probability Results

P(X = 3)
14.0374%
Exactly 3 occurrences
P(X < 3)
12.4652%
Fewer than 3 occurrences
P(X ≤ 3)
26.5026%
At most 3 occurrences
P(X > 3)
73.4974%
More than 3 occurrences
P(X ≥ 3)
87.5348%
At least 3 occurrences
Decimal Value
0.140374
P(X = 3) as decimal

Poisson Formula: P(X = x) = e × λx / x!

With your values: P(X = 3) = e-5 × 53 / 3!

Distribution Properties

5.00
Mean (μ)
5.00
Variance (σ²)
2.24
Std. Dev. (σ)

Probability Mass Function

0
0.67%
1
3.37%
2
8.42%
3
14.04%
4
17.55%
5
17.55%
6
14.62%
7
10.44%
8
6.53%
9
3.63%
10
1.81%
11
0.82%
12
0.34%
13
0.13%
14
0.05%
15
0.02%

Blue bars show probability for each number of occurrences. Selected value (x = 3) is highlighted in darker blue.

Common Applications

Customer Arrivals

Average 5 customers per hour

λ = 5, x = number of customers

Email Arrivals

Average 10 emails per day

λ = 10, x = number of emails

Website Hits

Average 50 hits per minute

λ = 50, x = number of hits

Defects

Average 2 defects per batch

λ = 2, x = number of defects

Key Properties

Mean and variance are both equal to λ

Standard deviation = √λ

Used for rare events with known average rate

Events must be independent

Rate must be constant over time

Understanding the Poisson Distribution

What is the Poisson Distribution?

The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of events occurring in a fixed interval of time or space, given that these events occur at a known constant average rate and are independent of each other.

When to Use Poisson Distribution

  • Events occur independently
  • Average rate (λ) is known and constant
  • Events are rare but theoretically unlimited
  • Probability of an event in small interval is proportional to interval length

Formula and Parameters

P(X = x) = e × λx / x!

  • λ (lambda): Average rate of occurrence per interval
  • x: Number of occurrences we want to find probability for
  • e: Euler's number (≈ 2.71828)
  • x!: Factorial of x

Note: Both λ and x must be non-negative, and x must be a whole number.

Real-World Examples

Call Center

A call center receives an average of 8 calls per hour. What's the probability of receiving exactly 10 calls in the next hour?

λ = 8, x = 10

Manufacturing Defects

A factory produces items with an average of 0.5 defects per item. What's the probability of finding exactly 2 defects in an item?

λ = 0.5, x = 2

Network Traffic

A server receives an average of 100 requests per minute. What's the probability of receiving exactly 95 requests in the next minute?

λ = 100, x = 95

Radioactive Decay

A radioactive sample emits an average of 3.2 particles per second. What's the probability of detecting exactly 4 particles in the next second?

λ = 3.2, x = 4