Lung Cancer Risk Calculator

Estimate lung cancer risk based on smoking history and personal factors using validated research

Critical Medical Disclaimer

This calculator is for educational purposes only and should NOT be used for medical diagnosis or treatment decisions.

  • Risk calculations are based on population averages and may not reflect individual risk
  • Results cannot predict individual outcomes - high-risk individuals may never develop cancer
  • Many factors (genetics, air pollution, occupational exposure) are not included
  • Always consult an oncologist or physician for proper cancer screening guidance
  • This tool cannot substitute for professional medical examination or advice

Personal Information

Smoking History

Lung Cancer Risk Assessment

Enter your information above to calculate lung cancer risk

All fields are required for accurate risk assessment

Example Risk Assessment

High Risk Example

Profile: 65-year-old male, BMI 28, smoked 30 cigarettes/day for 40 years

Pack-years: (30÷20) × 40 = 60 pack-years

Quit: 2 years ago, daily cough, 2 hours smoke exposure

Risk level: Would likely exceed screening thresholds

Recommendation: Discuss CT screening with oncologist

Lower Risk Example

Profile: 35-year-old female, BMI 22, smoked 10 cigarettes/day for 10 years

Pack-years: (10÷20) × 10 = 5 pack-years

Quit: 5 years ago, no daily cough, minimal smoke exposure

Risk level: Age factor significantly reduces calculated risk

Recommendation: Continue regular health monitoring

Risk Factors Included

Age

Risk increases with age

Sex

Males have higher baseline risk

Pack-Years

Total lifetime smoking exposure

Smoking Intensity

Cigarettes per day

Quit Duration

Years since cessation

BMI

Body mass index

Daily Cough

Respiratory symptoms

Screening Thresholds

High Risk

6-year risk ≥ 0.64% OR 16-year risk ≥ 1.75%

Consider Screening

Discuss CT screening with your doctor if thresholds exceeded

Important Notes

Based on Norwegian population research (65,000+ participants)

Individual outcomes vary significantly from population averages

Age is major factor - younger people typically have lower risks

Genetics and environmental factors not included

Understanding Lung Cancer Risk

Research Foundation

This calculator is based on the validated HUNT study by Markaki et al. (2018), which analyzed over 65,000 participants in Norway. The research identified seven key risk factors that significantly predict lung cancer development in smokers of all ages and exposure types.

Key Findings

  • Model validated on additional 45,000-person dataset
  • Effective for screening high-risk individuals
  • Age is the most significant risk factor
  • Pack-years provide cumulative exposure measure

Risk Interpretation

Low Risk: Below screening thresholds. Continue regular health monitoring and maintain smoke-free lifestyle.
Moderate Risk: Approaching thresholds. Discuss screening options with your healthcare provider.
High Risk: Exceeds screening thresholds. Consider low-dose CT screening as recommended by medical guidelines.

Remember: This is a population-based estimate. Individual risk depends on many factors not included in this model.

Clinical Applications

Screening Decisions

Helps identify individuals who may benefit from low-dose CT screening programs.

Risk Counseling

Provides quantitative risk estimates for patient counseling and shared decision-making.

Monitoring

Tracks risk changes over time, especially after smoking cessation.